​SMS Does Modeling

SMS uses the techniques of statistical or mathematical modeling to serve our clients in several ways:

  • To produce our in-house Models for Measurement, Tracking, and Forecasting. We maintain models of the population, housing market, and other aspects of Hawaii's economy to support research for all of our clients.
  • To test the foundations of our conceptual models of major marketing or communications systems. The best example is our conceptual model of the tourism industry, which is used to develop research for clients in that sector of Hawaii's economy.
  • Research Models to support decision making for specific projects. These are usually ad hoc statistical or economic models used in specific projects for our clients. Research Models are frequently applied on our economic impact, EIS, SIA, EIA, and AIA projects.

Custom Modeling is sometimes applied when a client needs a conceptual or statistical a specific purpose.

What's In It For You

SMS maintains the Population Model and the Housing Model on a continuing basis to support all of our research.

They are on hand at all times and form the background for all research on our client's projects.

They are used to design and fine-tune survey samples, to tie research to reality and demonstrate how products and services will impact the marketplace.

Industry or market models like the Hawaii Tourism Model are concept models that define a basic underlying framework to support planning, measurement, analysis, and evaluation for all or part of that system.

Research models are built specifically for a given task or type of research. Development Impact Models, for instance, are constructed to estimate the short- and long-range economic impact of residential or commercial developments on the people of community, county, and state tax bases.

Custom modeling is applied to any client project when needed.


The SMS Hawaii Population Model (HIPOP)

HIPOP is a formal structure that describes statistically how the Hawaii population has grown over the last four decades. Integrated submodels are available for total individuals, adults only, and households. Individual and adult data are stratified by island, year, age, and gender; household data are stratified by island, year, and household size. The model is used for relevant trends analysis, to support current research, or as a forecasting base. HIPOP is also the basis for all SMS surveys, unifying our results on the exact same population base for all research we do.

The Hawaii Housing Model (HHM)

HHM is a complex conceptual model of Hawaii's housing market/industry rendered in statistical form. The hard data reside in many files and subfiles containing information on household formation; housing stock; construction activity; real estate sales prices and market activity; residential housing demand; buyer/renter preferences for housing types, sizes, and prices; qualification for purchase/rent; interest rates and financing availability, and others. A relatively flexible system has been developed to forecast housing demand by type and location, or to study the relationships among housing production, affordability, and sales.

The Guam Housing Model (GHM)

The Guam Housing Model is currently under construction at SMS. The model will begin from the basic foundations of the Hawaii Housing Model, but will be custom developed for the Territory of Guam. It is expected to include some additional variables; to be suited to the peculiarities of Guam's housing market; to be more sensitive to dramatic changes in population size and structure; and to include more detail on the use of Guam's housing stock by the U.S. Military.

The SMS Tourism Model (STM)

STM is a conceptual model of the mechanisms that underlie Hawaii's visitor industry. Combining the features of marketing models and operations research, STM forms the foundation for all of SMS's work in this industry. Although many of its features are applicable to tourism in any destination, STM is tailored to Hawaii's industry in that it incorporates Hawaii's many sources of information on its visitor markets, products, and customers.

Client Testimonials

SMS did a great job in leading Hawai‘i Tourism Authority’s evaluation development process…including identifying input, output and outcome measures to track progress toward HTA’s strategic goals. SMS also provided steps to guide us in integrating the evaluation process into our overall operations and planning. Our staff was actively engaged in the process and tracking the measures will ensure a focus on driving towards outcomes.

— Leslie Dance, former VP Marketing
Hawai‘i Tourism Authority

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